Turkey Between Allies and Adversaries

 

Photo source: The National

By Naveed Qazi | Editor, Globe Upfront

In recent months, Turkey has adopted a more complex foreign policy, balancing assertiveness with selective cooperation as it seeks greater independence in decision-making. This approach is also visible at home, where a more cautious political environment reflects Ankara’s effort to redefine its role on the global stage.

A brief moment of optimism appeared at the June 2023 NATO defence ministers’ meeting, where Greek and Turkish officials agreed to rebuild ties ‘based on good neighbourly relations and friendship’. Given the history of tensions between Greece and Turkey, this marked a modest but important step towards easing friction.

However, this softer tone has often been offset by stronger rhetoric from Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Before the meeting, Erdogan criticised Greece’s defence cooperation with the United States and stressed Turkey’s aim to ‘contain our adversaries’. His visit to Nicosia further highlighted ongoing divisions, as he insisted that progress on Cyprus talks depends on recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus—a stance firmly rejected by European states.

This position has drawn sharp criticism from Cyprus. President Nikos Christodoulides has described Turkey as a ‘spoiler’, accusing it of using migration pressures to influence Europe. Such exchanges show that tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean remain unresolved.

At the same time, Turkey has strengthened ties elsewhere. Erdogan’s visit to Baku underlined close relations with Azerbaijan, where he backed President Ilham Aliyev and supported the proposed Zangezur corridor. Armenia, however, continues to oppose the plan, reflecting ongoing tensions in the region.

Turkey has also remained engaged with the United States. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met Jeff Flake in Ankara to discuss Sweden’s bid to join NATO, an issue that has become central to Turkey’s negotiations with its Western partners.

Disagreements in the Eastern Mediterranean continue to create friction. As journalist David Lepeska reported in The National, Turkey has at times blocked NATO planning over concerns about geographical wording in official documents. These disputes, though technical on the surface, reflect deeper political sensitivities.

Even terminology has become contentious. Turkey appears wary of language that could indirectly support Greek or Cypriot claims, and may be seeking symbolic recognition of TRNC in international frameworks.

Meanwhile, regional cooperation is moving ahead without Turkey in some areas. In June 2023, Israel, Greece and Cyprus met in Nicosia to expand cooperation in energy, defence and trade. Against this backdrop, Erdogan’s post-election visit to Cyprus signalled Ankara’s intention to remain actively involved in regional affairs.

The July 2023 Vilnius Summit highlighted Turkey’s strategic importance. NATO aimed to advance its regional defence plans and approve Sweden’s membership, but Turkey’s support remained conditional. Its demands included progress on defence deals, such as F-16 upgrades, as well as security and political concerns related to Cyprus.

Some analysts suggested alternative approaches. Rather than waiting for full approval, NATO could deepen cooperation with Sweden in practical terms, effectively integrating it without formal membership.

Economic pressures have also shaped Turkey’s recent choices. As the lira weakened, Erdogan signalled a shift towards more conventional economic policies by appointing Hafize Gaye Erkan, formerly of Goldman Sachs, as central bank governor. His engagement with Ursula von der Leyen suggested a cautious effort to improve ties with the European Union.

However, domestic developments continue to complicate this outreach. State-aligned media such as TRT have promoted conservative messaging critical of Western social values, while restrictions on public events linked to Pride have continued. These trends reinforce European concerns about Turkey’s alignment with liberal democratic norms.

Legal and political controversies have added to these concerns. As noted by Lepeska, media portrayals have echoed cases like that of Osman Kavala, while opposition figures such as Ekrem Imamoglu face ongoing legal challenges. The Council of Europe has criticised Turkey for failing to comply with rulings related to Kavala’s detention.

Despite these tensions, Turkey remains vital to NATO. Its location on the alliance’s south-eastern flank and its access to the Black Sea give it significant strategic value, particularly during the war in Ukraine. Ankara’s objections to Sweden’s membership—focused on its demand for stronger action against groups it considers terrorist—show how it is using this position to press its concerns.

Overall, Turkey’s recent actions reflect a careful balancing act rather than inconsistency. It is navigating between competing priorities—East and West, security and sovereignty, cooperation and rivalry—in a rapidly changing geopolitical environment.