A New Dawn for Egypt and Turkey

 

Photo source: Al Jazeera

By Naveed Qazi | Editor, Globe Upfront

After securing victory in the May 2023 elections, Recep Tayyip Erdogan received an unexpected but meaningful gesture: a congratulatory phone call from Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. More than a routine exchange, it marked the beginning of a clear effort to reset ties between two regional powers long defined by distrust.

In the weeks that followed, both leaders moved quickly to improve relations, agreeing to restore full diplomatic ties and exchange ambassadors. As Sisi later noted, this decision was made almost immediately—suggesting that the groundwork for reconciliation had been laid well before Erdogan’s electoral victory.

What makes this shift especially notable is that economic ties remained strong even during years of political tension. Despite a decade of strained relations, Egypt was still among the top twenty destinations for Turkish exports in 2022, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. Trade, in this sense, acted as a steady link even when diplomacy faltered.

To understand the importance of this change, it is necessary to recall how relations broke down. Tensions escalated sharply after Sisi’s 2013 removal of Mohammed Morsi, a leader closely associated with the Muslim Brotherhood. Turkey’s strong support for the Brotherhood—and its decision to host exiled members—angered Egypt and turned political differences into a deeper rivalry.

For several years, Turkey became a safe haven for Brotherhood figures fleeing repression in Egypt. This policy not only strained relations but also deepened divisions over the role of political Islam in the region. These differences were further complicated by opposing positions in Libya and disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Now, however, a different pattern is emerging. As reported by The New Arab, renewed ties between the Eastern Mediterranean’s two largest military powers could reshape regional politics and help resolve long-standing disputes. From instability in Libya to maritime tensions, the effects could be significant.

Experts have highlighted the importance of this development. Soner Çagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy described it as ‘a big game changer’, noting that both countries see themselves as leading powers in the region. Their long-standing rivalry is now, at least for the moment, giving way to practical cooperation.

The roots of this rapprochement go back to 2021, when early talks between officials from both sides began. According to Khalil al-Anani of the Arab Center Washington DC, these discussions helped rebuild trust and reopen diplomatic channels.

Economic pressures have played a key role in this shift. Turkey has faced high inflation and currency instability since its 2018 financial crisis, while Egypt is dealing with rising debt and heavy financial obligations. These challenges have encouraged both countries to reduce tensions and focus on cooperation.

At the same time, wider regional changes have supported this process. Improved relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the gradual return of Bashar al-Assad to regional diplomacy, and the easing of tensions between Qatar and its Gulf neighbours have created a more favourable environment for dialogue. In this context, Turkey and Egypt’s rapprochement reflects a broader regional trend.

Economic needs have also shaped Turkey’s policy. In recent years, Erdogan has softened his approach towards the Muslim Brotherhood and worked to rebuild ties with Gulf states to attract investment. Steps such as limiting Brotherhood-linked media activity—including closing the anti-Sisi channel Mekameleen—have helped ease tensions with Egypt.

Egypt has followed a similar path. Facing shortages of foreign currency, it has relied increasingly on investment from Gulf countries, including selling state assets. These shared economic priorities have provided a practical basis for renewed cooperation.

Geopolitics also plays an important role. In the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey’s disputes with Greece over maritime boundaries highlight the importance of Egypt’s position. Better relations with Cairo could reduce Turkey’s isolation and open the door to negotiated solutions.

Libya remains the most immediate test. For years, Egypt supported forces led by Khalifa Haftar, while Turkey backed the internationally recognised government in Tripoli. This rivalry deepened divisions and prolonged instability. However, recent contacts suggest both sides now share an interest in holding elections to resolve the political deadlock.

There are some encouraging signs. Officials from both countries have expressed support for this goal, recognising that continued rivalry benefits neither side. As reported by Voice of America, analyst Paul Sullivan noted that regional stability—especially in light of global shocks such as the war in Ukraine—has become increasingly important.

What we are seeing, then, is not a sudden change but a gradual and deliberate shift shaped by both necessity and strategy. The warming of ties between Turkey and Egypt reflects a region in transition, where rigid ideologies are giving way to economic needs and practical thinking. Whether this fragile partnership endures will depend not only on continued cooperation between the two countries, but also on the evolving nature of Middle Eastern politics—where alliances often shift and national interests tend to outweigh old rivalries.